About the 4% win rate increase for pudge: There was a bug with rot that made it so it dealt half damage to himself. It's been fixed now, which is why it is dropping again

Because more people are trying to get Aghanim's than before without realizing it's just not that good.

Saw a spelling mistake when talking about Jakiro's Aghanim Sceptre upgrade, you wrote something along the lines of Aganaim sceptre.

Riot fix pls.

I think that jakiro dropped bacause of the mobility of heroes, just like you mentioned, when you have nothing to keep enemies in his ultimate his presence in game is poor

Where can i find the Pick/Ban stats?

I love Jakiro (he is one of my best characters). When the scepter upgrade came out I was intrigued but I kept my same build because he is not the best farming hero and I needed yo support. I have found that when im able to support properly my team wins a lot more. Scepter (unless the game went to very late game) would be a waste of gold.

He dropped win rate because of the aghm update - more people played him, he got some popularity increase. But he is actually a hard hero to play, he requires some skill. More low skilled people played him->win rate decrease.

As people tend to get faster heroes, blinking heroes, blink daggers etc. Jakiro becomes useless. Just as nyx dropped when his stun was nerfed.

I think that the increasing excitement of people for playing with other support heroes that got a more appealing change combined with the phase of the meta did the job.
For the first argument, Jakiro as a support and often in pub games the ward-courier-do-everything-support got overcome by changes that seems pretty much more amazing on other ward-bla-bla-bla-supports, like infinite bouncing Lich's ult, like no restriction vision for KOTL or even the "you got two charges" of Shadow Demon maybe.
And about the bkb: with the increasing of the importance of early magical nukers as meta shifted for shorter games, I have the impression that more people rush for bkb before the damage glass-canon builds. This could be making jakiro pretty much useless earlier than it did before.
And all this is improvised speculation :)

The Jakiro drop was probably because people don't stick him with someone that can either set up his stun, or people are maxing the E too quickly (because of the changes to it).

The reason is people just picking it to try aghanim build and leave all support duty to rest of the team.

Jakiro's drop could also be partially due to the recent buffs to Liquid Fire and Dual Breath, encouraging more experimentation with different skill builds, which may or may not be very successful.

I don't think Jakiro's loss rate is caused by any of the new balance changes such as the scepter or liquid fire and dual breath changes. I think it is more of the fact that a lot of people are choosing him for the first time because of the compendium hero challenge. Which leads to people using him who are inexperienced; and in a meta where he is a bad hero. I feel fairly certain that his scepter change is not the cause in anyway because many people who know about Jakiro realize that the length of his ult is almost irrelevant since the strategy isn't to run down and out, it is the side step it.

Because trench tier loves aghanims. Vanguard and vlads used to be the norm. Well, Vanguard is still the most popular go-to trench tier item but with more aghs upgrades coming, it's beginning to threaten its crown

I don't think jakiro's change in win rate is anything substantial. Probably just reading too much into it. He could of had bad luck with the 10 hero challenge by showing up on a lot of people's 10 heroes that aren't used to playing him.

I think Ele nailed it on the head for Jak's deceased winrate:
"He dropped win rate because of the aghm update - more people played him, he got some popularity increase. But he is actually a hard hero to play, he requires some skill. More low skilled people played him->win rate decrease."
Also, thanks for the article, very interesting read!
PS, I'm looking forward to reading the same analysis on the SEA, Chinese and European Metas respectively, having all this background will make for some tantalizing TI4 context!

aghs jakiro rush maybe,but i think the increase in popularity is what makes jak's winrate decreases,since jakiro isnt exactly the easiest hero,and adding the total played pool will add more chances to decrease the winrate for each loss.

It is because Jakiros Ultimate is not that great in the first Place! While with heroes like Crystal Maiden or Sand King you are able to dish out a lot of magical damage, this happens in a really short ammount of item. Jakiros Ultimate needs a lot of time to be really effective. And who will stand the full amout of time in this Burning Hell?
The other fact is, that it is really hard to land a proper Ultimate in fights without a proper setup. Of course you can just spill it into the fight, but the heroes can just walk out of it. Without any setup the best case scenario is, that heros will stay a maximum of time of arround 3 seconds in his Ulti, considering ice path hits and heros are slowed too. After this you just walk out and ignore it.
By the Time jakiro has his aghanims Scepter there will be probably a Mekanism and/or a Pipe of Insight on the opposite Team which can completely counter the described best case scenario!
So we see that there have to be a proper setup for his ulti. But the current meta doesnt feature that sort of setup. Void, Magnus, Enigma and maybe even DS are the best options here. All of those heroes are not that common in the current meta. Void of course would be the best Option. But with his low laning presence which you pointed out in the blog post jakiro can not secure the void farm he needs to have. With heroes like DS or Magnus you need really good team composition to play this wombo combo properly. And this is also a fact that tends to be missing in a lot of games.
While i think jakiro is really strong because of his pushing Ability, having an OK AOE disable and a decent strength gain, he just does not fit in the current early to mid and mobile game styles with his really low Movement Speed, turn rate and actually low damage/burst output. BUT most of the people will just want to try the new aghanim effect, so they pick him in the pub games, ending up loosing because of the reasons stated above.

increase in popularity + some people seems to rush aghs on jakiro..

and there a slight increase of jakiro push build (maxing liquid fire instead ice path first)
liquid fire is good for pushing, but that not make jakiro a good pusher. He still best used as support

It raised back to 51,5% with 0,3% increase in popularity, so I think it was just a coincidence

I think it was the time when a lot of people tried to win with their last compendium heroes(as I also have 2-3 heroes left now) and it's not an easy hero to play with. I think it's going to rise back in the near future.

jakiro has pretty long and obvious cast animations, probably everyone just got good and can avoid them.

I agree with most of the comments regarding Jakiro. The Aghanim buff has sparked curiosity and attracted more players to experiment (evidenced by the increased popularity). Let's face it, because [in many players' minds] Dota is as much about winning as it is about striving for that rampage, many of these new players of Jakiro are rushing Scepter instead of playing a support role and adding value to the team. I wouldn't be surprised if regular and adept players of Jakiro also tried out a rush Scepter build for lols. Curious to see if there is this big a win% difference in higher tier games and ranked/normal matchmaking

It does not sound relevant between win rate of pudge and jakiro, the increase in pudge's win rate is in no way affecting the jakiro's win rate. Recently, I actually saw MYM.Ryze used jakiro as a carry, he went for a 0 4 4 1 build at lv9, it is a really strong build when combined together with his team, but not a viable build in pub as the slow and damage output that dual fire breathe provides is much stronger. Apart from that, I do agree that the scepter-rush build on jakiro affects gameplay as supportive items will be ignored. In fact, some of the pubs are not good in this hero (can't land a good icepath and macropyre as well), but the scepter upgrade makes them want to play this hero which directly pull down the win rate.

The problem with Jakiro is that like anny hero getting new aghs upgrade, it just makes the community try those for the extra oomph they provide. I don't think pubs can take advantage of the aghs benefits in the same way they can't take advantage of a nightstalker with aghanim.

Well, besides the Blink Dagger meta, there's another large however temporary factor that actually happens quite often. When a Hero gets a new gimmick or ability (think tusk's snowball or Skeleton King's second active), people tend to try to use that gimmick instead of doing what they would normally do. Many people are rushing Aghanim's Scepter instead of buying Wards, a Mek, or a Force Staff. This strategy however, doesn't pan out as often as the other items as his ultimate is extremely situational compared to forcing an enemy or ally into position or healing your team instantly to win a fight. Because of this, the winrate goes down temporarily. Eventually, it will return to what it previously was, or at least very close to it.

The Heroes which are good vs Jakiro recieved buffs

well jakiro isn't really a hero which gets a lot of farm. Also even when he is played as a 1 position(#C9Dota) he almost never gets an aghanims because there are more important items for him to get earlier. now a lot of peope want to try the aghanim and rush it. winrate explained

I think jakiro's win rate drop is because his agh buff...that probably caused a lot jakiros to try to save for that agh and once they got it it's fat below their expectation. The money was pretty much wasted for most jakiro in pub to get an agh since this hero requires a lot teamwork to be powerful. Jakiro by himself is one of the weakest hero in the game, no escapes, no very reliable stun, no instant nuke and not by any means mobile, although fighting in his ult is the one of the worst thing ever in dota2 but it require some teamwork to limit the enemies' mobility, like a big cog or rp or blackhole...but that kind of teamwork is already too much to ask from pub( i've seen a lot people cant even execute the storm spirit & naix combo...which should only require each player press R...once..).Therefore the new jakiro wasted his money on agh and failed on supporting yet not contributing in teamfights. Of course his win rate will drop ;P.

The drop in Jakiro's win rate, in my opinion, corresponds with his popularity increase and the fact that win popularity increases win rates (normally) decline as the hero is now being used more by unskilled players. Aghanim scepter rushes also add to the fact probably, seeing as it isn't as good as an item as it seems, so rushing it over support items (including wards + magic wand + boots + bracer(s)) is actually really bad. And as we all know, wards win wars Squidward.

Because more noobs is playing him

The drop in winrate for jakiro is due to the fact that although aghanim's scepter is now a decent buff, it is still a buff that works after buying a 4200 gold item and macropyre is still easy to dodge without help

When I saw KOTL had the highest win rate i was ROFL

basically, the winrate dropped coz more people are playing it. the number of wins required needs to be higher.

simple maths

Jakiro's aghs isn't a new aghs, his aghs which was shit (but already rushed by some idiots) is still shit but upgraded.
Mek is core, then eul's, force staff, pipe, shiva's are good, but aghs is real bad (would be good if it made it wider, not longer)

Jakiro's Win Rate has dropped due to the high mobility meta, the recent blink dagger buff is a big deal!

As you've mentioned, in dual lanes, Jakiro is sub-par. In order for Jakiro to be able to get his Aghanim's Scepter, he needs to be either an offlane or mid solo. Sadly, both of this rarely happen. In a support position, it is almost impossible for Jakiro to get an Aghanim's Scepter without skipping his other support core items.

Hence, the decrease in win-rate probably came from bad decision of players, such as trying to get an Aghanim's Scepter without realizing that it is a situational item. Of course, the increase from the number of players that started to play this hero because of the patch update contributed to this as well, since learning takes time and probably some failures too.

I gues the jakiro drop is mainly due to the supposed attractiveness of his Agha upgrade to new player in pub. This combined with those same people rushing Agha while not supporting leads to an increase of defeat as it is a hard support to master and a poor farmer.

I think your pondering that Alchemist's increase in popularity may be due to the new UAE server is bordering on the incredibly racist when you put it down to the region's money. It evokes the stereotype of the money-grabbing Sheikh, one of the most pervasive stereotypes in the Western world, after the Muslim terrorist. Very ill thought out comment.

I think that the mobility is quite a fair reason to the drop in Jakiro's winrate, after the, let's not deny it at all, HUGE buff to Blink Dagger where it costs no mana makes it a priority item for several players, especially the mid-top tier pub players, and appealing to previous comments concerning lower skilled players now playing Jakiro more due to the buff of Aghanims Sceptre, in conjunction with the Blink Dagger buff, these players aren't often very skilled at landing Ice Paths accurately.

i think Jak is having a major win rate decrease mainly because of several reasons:
1. people are rushing aghs, therefore not buying wards, flying courier, etc. since they have no farm (usually) they end up being useless for the rest of the game
2. people cannot land icepaths nor keep people in macropyre. Who cares about longer range when enemies can just walk right out of it? it only is good with a team with incredible amounts of cc.
3. people play the hero wrong, constantly team fighting and not doing the best thing a jak can do: taking towers. liquid fire is a pain in the arse to deal with for the enemy team.
4. worng skill leveling. Many jak players tend to max icepath and dual breath, ignoring liquid fire. in my opinion, liquid fire and icepath should be maxxed first, since liquid fire helps you a lot more than dual breath. this leads to lack of early game pressure form jak players, making their games harder.

I think as many others have already said, that Jakiro's dropped win rate has to do alot with more people playing him, often those new to the hero, having to play against a generally improved hero base in the public realm for many players and people. There's so many people getting better at their own player/team stratergies, that players that are new to hero's like Jakiro are going to have a hard time adjusting.

Thank you for the blog post, and the prize giveaway; cheers! :D

Forget Jakiro, can someone please explain why Necrophos has the highest win rate as of 6.81.
A rise of about 4%, no mention of this anywhere

People are playing Jakiro wrong. MOST POPULAR ABILITY BUILD shows maxing ice path first. WRONG. Liquid fire is one of the best harassment tools that any support could wish for. That plus dual breath, push lanes, take early towers. Rotate and repeat.

I think it's because of treant who's getting mroe and mroe popular. People who play jakiro know that his strength this patch is pushing tower. A permanent liquid fire on a tower deals a tons of damage. THe thing about treant being more popular is that he can heal back the tower which lead to less gold/space for jakiros team. Eventually, this affect its team as a whole since as you mentioned in the blog, jakiro is not good agaisnt mobility heroes and treant counter his biggest strength.

The post was pretty much correct about the causes of those playing Jakiro, mostly due to an increase in popularity. His skillset is nuanced and requires timing, and when players unfamiliar with him attempt them, it can have poor results. More importantly, his turn rate is horrible, meaning that as players get more familiar with playing against him, they have learned how better to avoid and destroy him

@ Badger However dropping macropyre in the roshan pit when you are trying to contest it is pretty damn huge.

But as I have stated before, some of these picks are mostly cause of people infatuated with playstyles not because of the change of the hero. Like brewmaster, I do not think people started playing him just because of that minor change in his E haha and same with Shadow fiend with the magic immunity debuff. Its just like last patch when naga siren became a carry again after she was nerfed 2-3 times in a row. She was a carry, got nerfed, became a support, got nerfed, and then became a carry again, got nerfed, now I hardly see her played. Morphling is picked quite a bunch now, but what has been changed about him?

I'm gonna post a pointless comment which contributes nothing to the discussion which (probably) hasn't already been mentioned by stating that adding a useless aghanims effect (Macropyre rarely helps for teamfights as no one stays in it for the full duration, unless you're contesting them at roshan, and even then.. not even in my gg op sub 3k mm bracket.) prolly had something to do with it, as many players would opt for rushing it, over support items. Especially in lower brackets, where majority of the player base is.

I'm gonna go against the crowd here and say that the reason Jakiro is falling behind is because of increasing popularity in pubs of heroes like Invoker, Sniper, Drow, Bloodseeker, PA, Viper, heroes which more or less completely destroy Jakiro before he does anything in a teamfight.

Got an 11 game win streak with Jakiro. He's more of a situational pick in my opinion. Having an enemy that can lock down your carries will be a good pick against them with the AOE he offers, and the fact that his 3rd ability doesn't take the creeps agro, means he can harass without taking too much damage from his awful cast animation. That's all Jakiro sucks at, is his cast animation.